2030 population projections

By 2020, there will be about three-and-a-half working-age adults for every retirement-age person. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Projections are not the same as predictions. This volume of the 2019 Revision presents the comprehensive tables of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, displaying key demographic indicators for selected periods or dates from 1950 to 2100, for the world, development groups, income groups, regions, … Note: The 2017 National Population Projections were revised after their original release date March 13 to correct an error in the calculation of infant mortality rates. The population is expected to grow at a slower pace, age considerably and become more racially and ethnically diverse. By contrast, Russia’s non-Muslim population is expected to shrink by an average of 0.6% annually over the same period. Julie Iriondo/Jewel Jordan Aims: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) constitute the category termed “intermediate hyperglycaemia” by WHO. Today’s Syrian refugees, 2030’s CEOs. [14], Estimates published in the 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth would stop increasing around 2070. Number of people aged 15-29 years in China by age group 2000-2050; United States' population projections for 2015-2060, by detailed age group; Ireland: total population 2002-2019 Found inside – Page 1In 2016, an estimated 54.5 per cent of the world’s population lived in urban settlements. Proportions of elderly population will also be high in (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main For Asians, the driving force behind their growth is high net international migration. 2040 Projection: 26,428,700. The first section presents population projections for 2010-2040 for the total population of the city and the five boroughs. Migration can have a significant effect on population change. File Layout. New York City Population Projections by Age/Sex and Borough, 2000-2030. The Muslim population in Israel (including Jerusalem but not the West Bank and Gaza) is expected to reach 2.1 million by 2030. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations has been issuing for several decades revised estimates and projections of the urban and rural populations of all countries in the world and of their major urban agglomerations. The non-Hispanic White-alone population is projected to shrink over the coming decades, from 199 million in 2020 to 179 million in 2060 — even as the U.S. population continues to grow. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations. A LawnStarter analysis of projections from the Texas Water Development Board shows the population of the Austin-San Antonio corridor, made up of 13 counties, will catapult from 4.27 million in 2014 to 5.71 million in 2030. [23] For example, the United Nations reports that during the period 2010–2020, fourteen countries will have seen a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will have seen a net outflow of similar proportions. For demand modeling, the HWSM assumes that demand equals supply in . "The world's Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & ... An interesting feature of the IIASA population projections is that they take into account the education of the population. SEPT. 6, 2018 — The year 2030 marks an important demographic turning point in U.S. history according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections.By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. A 2014 paper by demographers from several universities and the United Nations Population Division forecast that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter. SEPT. 6, 2018 — The year 2030 marks an important demographic turning point in U.S. history according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections. Thus, assuming no major change in the migration assumptions used in this projection, the percentage of retirement aged Louisiana residents between 2010 and 2030 will grow by 5%. The national 50-state projections are widely used and have practical applications in health, economics, politics and environmental research, to name a few. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The 2017 National Population Projections are the third set of projections based on the 2010 Census. [3], The 2019 forecast from the United Nation's Population Division (made before the COVID-19 pandemic) shows that world population growth peaked at 2.1% per year in 1968, has since dropped to 1.1%, and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100, a growth rate not seen since pre-industrial revolution days. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The Muslim share of the U.S. population (adults and children) is projected to grow from 0.8% in 2010 to 1.7% in 2030, making Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States today. The projected population is for 30 June each year. State and County Projections. Data Request More information Page last reviewed: February 10, 2020 Public Information Office [15] In a 2004 long-term prospective report, the United Nations Population Division projected the world population would peak at 7.85 billion in 2075. In 2030, we project that: Almost half of the AIAN population will be in fair or poor health. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Alaska’s population age 65 and older is largely made up of retirees. Year. the survived population. United Nations population projections are also included through the year 2035. Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc. For years after 2030, CBO has updated its long-term population, economic, and revenue projections and has updated spending projections using a simplified approach. (See the Europe section. See, for example,Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010, and Muslim Americans: Middle Class and Mostly Mainstream, 2007. ), In Europe as a whole, the Muslim share of the population is expected to grow by nearly one-third over the next 20 years, rising from 6% of the region’s inhabitants in 2010 to 8% in 2030. Spain was expected to see a net gain of 70,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, but they account for a much smaller portion of all new immigrants to Spain (13.1%). GCCSA population projections for the central and pre-covid-19 projection scenarios detailed in the 2020 Population Statement. CBO expects to publish fully updated long-term projections in the spring of 2020. The world population has grown tremendously over the past 2,000 years. They are expected to remain the top countries of origin for Muslim immigrants to the U.S. in 2030. (To find the current estimate and projections for a particular region or country, see Muslim Population by  Country, 1990-2030.) Aims: To provide global estimates of diabetes prevalence for 2019 and projections for 2030 and 2045. In Austria, Muslims are projected to reach 9.3% of the population in 2030, up from 5.7% today; in Sweden, 9.9% (up from 4.9% today); in Belgium, 10.2% (up from 6% today); and in France, 10.3% (up from 7.5% today). By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. Regions with TFR above this rate, will see TFR continue to decline. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Under 18 years 65 years and over Population Under 18 Years and 65 Years and Over: 1990 to 2060 Population (in millions) The population 65 years and over is projected to become Models of population growth take trends in human development, and apply projections into the future. Demographic prospects for China and Ghana, 2050 – HDR (2013) 4. In some cases, however, the time periods vary because data is available only for certain years or in five-year increments (e.g., 2010-15 or 2030-35). [22] In the More Developed regions, the projected increase is from 79 years today[21] to 83 years by mid-century. In 1990, more than two-thirds of the total population of Muslim-majority countries was under age 30. How the world meets the challenge of sustainable development will be intimately tied to this process. Americas: John Van Hasselt/Sygma/Corbis, 1615 L St. NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20036 USA By 2030, all baby boomers will be older than age 65. Found insideThe initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. Population and education future in India, 1970-2050 – HDR (2013) 3. 301-763-3030 State projections for other years are available by request. Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Los Angeles metro area from 1950 to 2021. While the worldwide Muslim population today is relatively young, the so-called Muslim “youth bulge” – the high percentage of Muslims in their teens and 20s – peaked around the year 2000 and is now declining. The projections are based both on past demographic trends and on assumptions about how these trends will play out in future years. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. These projections are based on state-specific assumptions about future fertility, mortality, domestic migration and net international migration. Some of the authors of the 2004 UN report assumed that life expectancy would rise slowly and continuously. An interesting feature of the IIASA population projections is that they take into account the education of the population. With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide, the main driver of future population growth will be the evolution of the fertility rate. [7], However, estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility (such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in the Sustainable Development Goals) which could result in peak population during the 2060-2070 period rather than later. The number of Muslims in Canada is expected to nearly triple in the next 20 years, from about 940,000 in 2010 to nearly 2.7 million in 2030. Native born (In percent) 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050 2050–2060 6.4 19.9 18.7 14.5 11.0 8.2 5.6 4.2 3.5 3.8 Foreign born. These are among the key findings of a comprehensive report on the size, distribution and growth of the global Muslim population. Nations’ latest population projections for countries and regions for the period 2015-2030—the implementation period of the 2030 Agenda—in order to identify the coming challenges to and Global age structures for 2030 and 2045 were calculated using the projected UN population estimates for 2030 and 2045, respectively. Includes population projections produced by Utah's seven associations of government: Bear River, Five County, Mountainland, Six County, Southeastern, and Uintah Basin Associations of Government plus Wasatch Front Regional Council. Related Articles & Maps The goal is to count all groups and individuals who self-identify as Muslims. In CBO’s projections for the 2021–2030 period, total discretionary budget authority rises by about 2.3 percent a year, on average. As birth rates drop and people live longer all around the globe, the population of the entire world is aging. The new population projection for 2030 is 8.8 million, with a rise to 9.03 million in 2040. Various surveys give differing figures for the size of religious groups in Nigeria, which appears to have roughly equal numbers of Muslims and Christians in 2010. [12], Because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, for the remainder of this century, but the main driver of long-term future population growth will be the evolution of the global average fertility rate.[7]. The main factors, or inputs, in the population projections are: Related factors – which are not direct inputs into the projections but which underlie vital assumptions about the way Muslim fertility rates are changing and Muslim populations are shifting – include: To fully understand the projections, one must understand these factors, which the next section of the report will discuss in more detail. The base population estimates are based on the usually resident population. This paper presents three demographic models useful for projections of social sector demand. [22] Among the Least Developed countries, where life expectancy today is just under 65 years,[21] it is expected to be 71 years in 2045–2050.[22]. The excel document contains several worksheets; please click on the tabs at the bottom of the document to view the 2020, 2030, and 2040 projections as well as percent population 65+ and median age. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. For years after 2030, CBO has updated its long-term population, economic, and revenue projections and has updated spending projections using a simplified approach. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a … Includes an in-depth description of the projection methodology. [24], Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. The share of children who are Two or More Races is projected to more than double in coming decades, from 5.3 percent today to 11.3 percent in 2060. Europe, will see TFR rise. In 1999, the world population passed the six-billion mark. The population projections for 2030 and 2060 are based upon four socio-economic and environmental scenarios formulated by the Foresight Project [38, 39] and involve combining the spatial assessment of present coastal population with UN statistical demographic data sets (see also Fig. Florida Population Estimates and Projections by AHCA District 2010 to 2030 Certificate of Need Office 2727 Mahan Drive Tallahassee, FL 32308 process repeated through 2030. The national 50-state projections are widely used and have practical applications in health, economics, politics and environmental research, to name a few. The median age in Muslim-majority countries, for example, rose from 19 in 1990 to 24 in 2010 and is expected to climb to 30 by 2030. North Central Texas Regional Projections The 2030 regional forecasts differ from earlier projections for North Central Texas in several significant ways. [16], This prediction was revised in the 2010s, to the effect that no maximum will likely be reached in the 21st century. [18], The UN Population Division report of 2019 projects world population to continue growing, although at a steadily decreasing rate, and to reach 10.9 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of close to zero. Estimates for IGT in 2019 and projections in 2030 and 2045. [4] Based on this, the UN Population Division expects the world population, which is at 7.8 billion as of 2020[update], to level out around 2100 at 10.9 billion (the median line),[5][6] assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.9 in 2095–2100, according to the medium-variant projection. The World in 2050 report was published in February 2017.While we think that the discussion of long term trends in the report remains of interest, it does not take account of major events since that date, including in particular the recent global COVID-19 pandemic. The portion of the world’s Muslims living in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to rise; in 20 years, for example, more Muslims are likely to live in Nigeria than in Egypt. About 3% of the world’s Muslims live in more-developed regions, such as Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. The U.S. population is projected to reach 275 million by 2000 -- a growth of 12 million or 4.5% since 1995. Additionally, major demographic trends, such as an aging population and an increase in racial and ethnic diversity, remain unchanged. States with a lot of "braindrain"--namely Iowa, West Virginia, North Dakota, and Nebraska--will … We apply current patterns of health care use and delivery to future population estimates. By 2030, the difference between WHO and UN baseline projections of population grew to −3.5%, and the range from pessimistic to optimistic scenarios to 7.75 billion to 8.07 billion. Highly educated Syrian refugees will have come of age by 2030, making the case for the economic integration of those who have been forced to flee conflict. About two-thirds of the Muslims in the U.S. today (64.5%) are first-generation immigrants (foreign-born), while slightly more than a third (35.5%) were born in the U.S. By 2030, however, more than four-in-ten of the Muslims in the U.S. (44.9%) are expected to be native-born. through 2030. Population Statement 2020 capital city and balance of state (GCCSA) population projections, 2019-20 to 2030-31. Projections of Population by Age: 2010 to 2030 In spite of its slow rate of growth, elderly population is projected to account for 28.1% of Cape May County’s total population in 2030– the highest percentage in the state. The UN's population projections to 2030 indicate modest rankings changes from the present. [29][30][31], Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself and global population may continue to grow in the long term. The Two or More Races population is projected to be the fastest growing over the next several decades, followed by single-race Asians and Hispanics of any race. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age. The world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life. By contrast, a 2014 projection by the United Nations Population Division predicted a population close to 11 billion by 2100 without any declining trend in the foreseeable future. Population Estimates/Projections Data Sex and Single Years of Age (2000 – 2050) Single file that includes the 2000-2009 intercensal estimates, the 2010-2019 population estimates, and the 2020-2050 population projections for all counties and the state. Can we be sure the world's population will stop rising? 2. [35] By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion;[35] the percentage of people living in the 101 largest cities is estimated to be 15% to 23%. The portion of the world’s Muslims who are Shia may decline slightly, largely because of relatively low fertility in Iran, where more than a third of the world’s Shia Muslims live. The world population has grown tremendously over the past 2,000 years. Population data. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1900 -2010 Decennial Census, 2010 2030 Population Projections, BPDA Research Division Analysis 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 projections show increases in the older age cohorts. Despite progress, the world is not on track to meet 2030 education targets. The report by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life seeks to provide up-to-date estimates of the number of Muslims around the world in 2010 and to project the growth of the Muslim population from 2010 to 2030. This report has three sections. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global ... The Excel files for download include drop-down menus to select individual regions. 2010 to 2050 Projected Population for Ohio. Background: Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. Muslims make up only about 2% of the population in China, but because the country is so populous, its Muslim population is expected to be the 19th largest in the world in 2030. Methods: A total of 255 high-quality data sources, published between 1990 and 2018 and representing 138 countries were identified. Because the region’s non- Muslim population also is growing at a rapid pace, Muslims are expected to make up only a slightly larger share of the region’s population in 2030 (31.0%) than they do in 2010 (29.6%). The current metro area population of Los Angeles in 2021 is 12,459,000, a 0.1% increase from 2020. To the extent possible, the report provides data for decennial years – 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. needs in Malaysia grew 40% from 2004 to 2014 and. ; Over 50 percent of the AIAN population aged 62 to 67 will have some work limitation. The 2030s are projected to be a transformative decade for the U.S. population. Projection Methodology. The error did not affect the other two components of population change used in the projections series (fertility and migration). This will expand the size of the older population so … Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 26% in 2050 and 39% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 59% in 2020 to 55% in 2050 and 43% in 2100. Before the coronavirus crisis, projections showed that more than 200 million children would be out of school, and only 60 per cent of young people would be completing upper secondary education in 2030. GCCSA population projections for the central and pre-covid-19 projection scenarios detailed in the 2020 Population Statement. We apply current patterns of health care use and delivery to future population estimates. The population of 31 countries or areas, including Ukraine, Romania, Japan and most of the successor states of the Soviet Union, is expected to be lower in 2050 than in 2005. 2030 Projection: 24,426,200. File. Where the mortality rate is low and life expectancy has therefore risen, a change in mortality will have much less an effect. File Layout. 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 349,641,876 Population. Projections in this table were developed for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia by age and sex for the years 2000 to 2030, based on Census 2000 results. The projections presented in this report are the medium figures in a range of three scenarios – high, medium and low – generated from models commonly used by demographers around the world to forecast changes in population size and composition. The world’s Muslim population is expected to increase by about 35% in the next 20 years, rising from 1.6 billion in 2010 to 2.2 billion by 2030, according to new population projections by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life. Population Estimates & Projections for U.S., States, Metros & Counties May 2021 .. how are county demographics changing in face of the pandemic and related factors? This report provides projections for the agricultural sector to 2030. Net international migration is projected to overtake natural increase in 2030 as the primary driver of population growth in the United States, another demographic first for the United States. By February 2020, the official world population had jumped over the seven-billion mark to an estimated 7.76 billion, according to Worldometers, a world statics website operated by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers. How the world meets the challenge of sustainable development will be intimately tied to this process. This page was last edited on 20 September 2021, at 18:28. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the Insurance Institute of South Africa (IIASA) project lower fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2100 than the UN. Change in Population Size by Nativity: 2010–2020 to 2050–2060. The greatest increases – driven primarily by continued migration – are likely to occur in Western and Northern Europe, where Muslims will be approaching double-digit percentages of the population in several countries. Impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) constitute the category termed “intermediate hyperglycaemia” by WHO. County projections . IHME and IIASA incorporate women’s educational attainment in their models of fertility, and in the case of IHME, also consider met need for family planning. This model captures the impact of the primary components of population change – births, deaths, and net migration – in order to forecast changes in future population. (For details, see the charts on population growth in the sections of this report on Asia-Pacific, Middle-East-North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and the Americas. Background: Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. 2017, xv and applies behavioral health utilization patterns across future population demographics. Data Request More information Page last reviewed: February 10, 2020 Population Estimates/Projections Data Sex and Single Years of Age (2000 – 2050) Single file that includes the 2000-2009 intercensal estimates, the 2010-2019 population estimates, and the 2020-2050 population projections for all counties and the state. Between now (2020) and 2100, regions with TFR currently below this rate, e.g. Population estimates for an additional 36 countries and territories are included in regional and global totals throughout the report. 2010 to 2040 Projected Population for Ohio Counties - Summary 2010 to 2040 Projected. Ciro Pabón y Ciro Pabón, Manual de Urbanismo, Editorial Leyer, Bogotá, 2007. 1 The seven countries projected to rise above 1 million Muslims by 2030 are: Belgium, Canada, Congo, Djibouti, Guinea Bissau,Netherlands and Togo. This report makes demographic projections. During the past 20 years, the Muslim population in Israel has more than doubled, growing from 0.6 million in 1990 to 1.3 million in 2010. Argentina, with about 1 million Muslims in 2010, is now in second place, behind the U.S. Children under age 15 make up a relatively small portion of the U.S. Muslim population today. This will expand the size of the older population so that 1 in every 5 residents will be retirement age. Russia will continue to have the largest Muslim population (in absolute numbers) in Europe in 2030. This statute mandates (3) the periodic preparation of population projections for the state and designated regions and (7) the issuing of a report to the Legislature containing an analysis of the demographic implications of the annual population study and population projections. Localized adverse events, including natural hazards, epidemiological events, and human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population. Based on the 2002 Revision, the Population Division has adopted 2 major innovations for this new set of long-range population projections. As a result, the population will naturally grow very slowly, leaving net international migration to overtake natural increase as the leading cause of population growth, even as projected levels of migration remain relatively constant. Making these projections inevitably entails a host of uncertainties, including political ones. By that year, nearly three-in-ten of the world’s youth and young adults – 29.1% of people ages 15-29 – are projected to be Muslims, up from 25.8% in 2010 and 20.0% in 1990. This growth may seem extreme given the current economic conditions in the region; however, Six statements in the news release have been corrected and are highlighted in red below. PopulationPyramid.net. 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Current projection, the driving force behind their growth are different, however Portland., agricultural trade, and apply projections into the future have not been updated for 2010, and..., Nigeria is expected to reach 2.1 million by 2000 -- a growth 12! Human conflict, underscore the criticality of quantifying and mapping current population for North central Texas in several significant.! Highest percentage of Muslim-majority countries, based on the size of the world is not track! World meets the challenge of sustainable development will be older than age 65 and adults! And ethnically diverse September 2021, at 18:28 population level and growth of population used. The worldwide population of Muslim-majority countries, etc report is very broad means urban population in Russia is projected be. Of total migration, and apply projections into the future York city population projections by Age/Sex Borough... Nations, for example, could dramatically affect the other two components of population growth hotel.! The Pew Charitable Trusts number of people 65 years old or older in. 2013 ) 4 1 compares the projections series ( fertility and migration ) of... To 2040 projected report provides data for decennial years – 1990, more than a quarter ( 28.1 % live!
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