In May, the National Economic and Social Development Council, which compiles GDP data, forecast 2021 GDP growth of 1.5-2.5%. Thailand’s economic outlook is the worst in Asia. The Kingdom will likely be the worst economic performer in Southeast Asia this year. The Bank of Thailand instead sees an economic expansion by more than 4% in 2022. Inflation is forecast to recover somewhat in 2021 staying near the lower bound of the Bank of Thailand’s 1 to 3 percent target range. Thailand has been cited as a success story in containing the coronavirus outbreak, having gone more than 40 days without any local transmission of Covid-19. The current account balance was projected to register a surplus of 16.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, due to the larger-than-expected trade surplus in the third quarter of 2020. Found inside – Page 128Based on a World Bank forecast, Thailand's economy is expected to post 3.8% growth in 2019 (World Bank 2018). Thailand's industrial and service sectors are ... Moreover, private consumption benefited from the relaxation of domestic containment measures as well as government measures that shored up household purchasing power. The Committee assessed that headline inflation would return to the target range around mid-2021, and would remain close to the lower bound of the target range throughout the forecast period. Economic Overview. However, so far results have been limited, with anecdotal evidence pointing towards continued grievances from middle-class and low-income households. Nevertheless, foreign tourist figures would grow in proportion to vaccination in Thailand and abroad, and would accelerate toward the latter half of 2022 when Thailand could start admitting tourists without vaccine screening. 22/09/2021. Found insideThe Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. Philippine central bank tempers outlook as it cuts 2021 current account surplus forecast ... this year echoes the damage wrecked by the pandemic on Thailand’s economy. Bank of Thailand has released its latest forecast for the Thai economy, expecting growth of more than 3 percent in 2021 The Bank of Thailand has released its latest overview of the Thai economy, which it expects will grow more than 3 percent in 2021. All rights reserved. Bank of Thailand. Thailand’s economy is projected to rebound to 4.0 percent in 2021 and pick up further to 4.7 percent in 2022, underpinned by a recovery in domestic demand and supportive fiscal policy. The Committee expressed concerns over the baht that could appreciate rapidly due to the risk-on sentiment in global financial markets and the weak outlook of the U.S. dollar. For 2022, it also cut its growth outlook to 3.7% from 3.9%. Gross domestic product is forecast to contract 8.1% this year, according to the Bank of Thailand. The Committee assessed that Thailand’s trading partner economies would contract by 3.8 percent in 2020, before expanding by 4.8 and 3.1 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Last month, the BOT cut its 2021 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 3.0% and the 2022 outlook to 3.9% from 4.7%, due to anticipated lower numbers of foreign tourists. The December 2020 Monetary Policy Report released the economic projection approved by the Monetary Policy Committee at the meeting on December 23, 2020. Found insideThe report reviews the evidence on demographic transition in EAP and its potential macroeconomic impact. Thailand: Economy records quickest expansion since Q4 2012 in Q2. But conventional public finance analysis and institutions fail to address such fiscal risks. This book aims to provide motivation and practical guidance to governments seeking to improve their management of fiscal risks. Yet its economic outlook is the darkest in Asia. The Thai economy was projected to contract in 2020 by 6.6 percent, which would be a smaller contraction than the previous assessment thanks to the faster-than-expected recovery in nearly all economic growth components in the third quarter. The prolonged COVID-19 situation abroad and in Thailand would result in limited admission of foreign tourists to Thailand and a need for strict public health measures. Growth is projected to rebound to 4.0 percent in 2021 and pick up further to 4.7 percent in 2022, at which point output will return to its pre … The balance of payments data for February showed the current account posting the fourth consecutive month of deficit. Household debt totaled Bt14.13 trillion in the first quarter, an 18-year-high and equivalent to 90.5 percent of GDP. The $1.7 billion cumulative current deficit in the first two months of 2021 contrasts sharply with the $8.8billion surplus in the same months of 2020. Still, Thailand’s economic growth is likely to be uneven, amid pronounced downside risks should Covid-19 worsen. Bank of Thailand Sees Only 3% Growth. Thailand Economic News. The Thailand Economic Monitor (TEM) reports on key developments in Thailand's economy over the past six months, situates these changes in the context of global trends and Thailand's longer-term economic trajectory, and updates Thailand's ... This increased the possibilities that the economy would underperform the baseline projection for 2021 and 2022. The government is blaming COVID-19 and the measures is has had to take to avoid a so-called disaster. The main interest rate is the 1-day repurchase rate. Unfortunately, despite low base, the Thai economy has been gradually downgraded to a growth of only 0-1% in 2021 due to subdued demand and disappointing foreign tourism. Short-term interest rates in financial markets remained at low levels consistent with the policy rate. In the Thailand Economic Monitor ‘The Road to Recovery’ released yesterday, the World Bank adjusted its outlook on Thailand’s economic growth this year to… Nevertheless, new waves of domestic COVID-19 cases, the phase-out of government measures, and the fragile recovery of the labor market would weigh on private consumption in the period ahead. In its June 2021 Monetary Policy Report, the Thai economy was projected to expand 1.8 percent in 2021 and 3.9 percent in 2022 thank to the more prolonged and severe third wave that affected domestic spending and foreign tourist figures. Tourism would be severely affected only in high-risk areas. [2]/ Forecasts released on December 23, 2020 took into consideration the effects of containment measures in Samut Sakhon. A scene at the Central Vaccination Center, inside Bang Sue Grand Station, Thailand. Thailand's economic and social transformation of the last 50 years has placed it in the ranks of upper middle-income countries and made it an integral part of global value chains. We estimate that real household spending contracted by 11.8% over 2020. In the Thailand Economic Monitor ‘The Road to Recovery’ released yesterday, the World Bank adjusted its outlook on Thailand’s economic growth this year to At the meeting, the central bank cut its 2021 economic growth forecast to 1.8%, from 3.0%, and its 2022 outlook to 3.9%, from 4.7%. This page has economic forecasts for Thailand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Thailand economy. Policymakers noted that the Thai economy continued to expand, but downside risks and uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook remained high. This could cause scarring effects whereby recovery of businesses would be hindered even after the pandemic subsided. Student-led protests in Thailand likely to further affect the already weak economic outlook. Policymakers noted that the Thai economy continued to expand, but downside risks and uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook remained high. The Thailand Industry Outlook report evaluates the attractiveness of selected Thai industries to support credit evaluation for the bank’s clients over the next 3 years (2021-2023). The report considers a range of factors that will affect each industry over this timeframe. Found insideThis is the United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy, providing global and regional economic outlook for 2020 and 2021. Thailand’s Economic Outlook: The Delta Variant Changed Everything. "The Thai economy was projected to expand 0.7% and 3.7% in 2021 and 2022 respectively," said the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee in its policy statement released on Wednesday. Found insideFocusing on the Asia-Pacific region, which in recent years has been the engine of global economic growth , this volume surveys trends and prospects in technical and vocational education and training (TVET) with particular reference to ... ( Best View with Chrome, Safari, Firefox or IE 10 (and above) ). As Thailand’s center of trade exports and tourism, Bangkok took the hardest hit when 2020 rolled in. For 2022, the central bank expects 3.7% growth, down from its earlier prediction of 3.9% growth. The results weren't far off from our -1.8% YoY forecast for the month, though it was a significant disappointment for the consensus centred on a swing to positive growth. FILE PHOTO: Thailand’s central bank is seen at the Bank of Thailand in Bangkok, Thailand April 26, 2016. The bank also lowers inflation forecasts for the 2020-22 period to reflect economic weakness and low oil prices, expecting average CPI inflation of - 0.5 per cent in 2020 (1.0 per cent previously), 1.0 per cent in 2021 (1.5 per cent previously) and 1.5 per cent in 2022 (3.0 per cent previously). As Thailand’s center of trade exports and tourism, Bangkok took the hardest hit when 2020 rolled in. Meanwhile, public expenditure would remain a key economic driver. The tourism industry would recover at a slower pace than previously assessed. For further information : Monetary Policy Strategy DivisionTel. You may be trying to access this site from a secured browser on the server. Economists […] In slightly better news, January manufacturing contraction was revised up to -2.0% YoY from -2.8% initial print. The impact on the economy would increase through different channels. Meanwhile, exports of services would contract more sharply and recover more slowly than previously assessed, as the admission of foreign tourists to Thailand would likely be limited by the prolonged and severe COVID-19 situation abroad. The European Central Bank announced further expansions of asset purchases programs. Cookies are small, simple text files stored in your computer, tablet or mobile phone when you visit a website or use an app. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) said after a policy meeting that it was again downgrading its growth forecast for this year to 0.7% from 1.8% predicted in June, and now expects just 150,000 foreign tourists. World Bank Group. Special Drawing Rights (SDR): 990.51 million. The Committee would closely monitor developments in foreign exchange markets, in order to assess the need for additional appropriate measures, as well as continue to expedite new foreign exchange ecosystem. Overall financial conditions in Thailand remained accommodative. These indicators reinforce a negative growth trend the Thai economy has been on since the last year. This comes at the back of a bleak economic outlook due to the recent COVID-19 outbreak. Private consumption was projected to expand by 2.8 and 3.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Meanwhile, the number of cases in other areas could be brought under control by partial restrictions on some economic activities and without necessitating strict and extensive containment measures. Bangkok Real Estate Market Outlook 2021. . Found inside – Page 67Thailand Thailand's Digital Economy Promotion Master Plan 2018-2021 encompasses five different components: digital infrastructure, digital manpower, ... 2000 - 2021. The new loan rates (NLR) edged up for some business sectors, owing partly to the slowdown in credit extension under the soft loan program. Private investment would significantly contract in 2020. Thailand: Inflation … BANGKOK - Thailand's central bank said on Friday it might cut its growth forecast for this year in response to a recent coronavirus outbreak, although the impact on economic … Looking ahead, trading partner economies would pick up as the pandemic subsided. Downside risks to the economic outlook also remained significant from the new wave of the outbreak. On exchange rates, the Thai baht relative to the US dollar depreciated more than regional currencies. In addition, uneven recoveries across economic sectors and areas would affect sustainability of economic growth going forward. Fourth, balance sheets of businesses could deteriorate and eventually resulting in permanent shutdowns. Private consumption would contract in 2020 by less than the previous forecast. Thailand’s GDP in 2020 registered a contraction of 6.1%, the worst since the 7.6% decline in the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. August 16, 2021. However, the projections did not incorporate the impacts of new waves of infections that spread over other provinces and those of more stringent measures which took effect on January 4, 2021. Quota (SDR): 3211.9 million. ©2015 Bank of Thailand. This increased the possibilities that the economy would underperform the baseline projection for 2021 and 2022. I agree with the use of all cookies. The current account balance was projected to register a surplus of 16.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2020, Going forward, the economic recovery would remain highly uncertain and could underperform the baseline projection due to the following factors, (Box: The Thai Economy and the New Wave of COVID-19). We have also revised our end-2021 USD/THB forecast to 31.30 from 29.80 previously. by internationalbanker September 14, 2021. Thailand's baht ended 1Q21 as Asia’s weakest currency. This edition finds improvements in emerging East Asian bond markets despite the resurgence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in early 2021. ( ) Previous Forecast in Monetary Policy Report - March 2021, Financial Institutions Supervision in Practice, Supervision of Other Financial Corporations, Puey Ungphakorn Institute For Economic Research, Yearly Report on Economic and Monetary Conditions, Download: Monetary Policy Report (full version) June 2021, Press Release on Monetary Policy Report, June 2021, Government Measures in Response to COVID-19, The recovery in foreign tourist arrivals - a key risk to Thailand’s economic recovery, Preparing for risks to Thailand’s economic outlook, The new financial rehabilitation measures to support business recovery post-COVID-19, Thailand’s monetary policy formulation process: “Thorough thinking and clear communication”, Fiscal measures in response to the new wave of COVID-19, Assessing risks to economic forecasts using Vine Copula models, Risks to Thailand’s economic recovery in the period ahead. ... the BOT cut its 2021 … The Bank of Thailand expects an annual growth of 0.7 percent for 2021. You may be trying to access this site from a secured browser on the server. Adding the lack of tourism problem to the services sector and we have one more quarter of GDP contraction on our hands. ... Economic outlook for 2020 and 2021 Bank of Thailand, CEIC-22.5%: Export fall in May. Due to the lingering effects of the second wave in December as well as bleak prospects for tourism, the Bank of Thailand has downgraded its economic growth prediction for 2021 to 3%. These strengths are balanced against weaker structural features relative to 'BBB' range peers, including lower World Bank governance scores and per capita income, and weaker medium-term growth prospects based in part on population ageing. Shares. World Bank, Bangkok. The Thai economy is on course to grow by only about 3 percent in 2019, down from a 4.1-percent growth rate in 2018, due to a combination of external and domestic factors. economic forecasts by various economic agencies both government and private sectors. Exports to China and Europe remained subdued, while those to the U.S. and Australia grew past the pre-pandemic level. Published: March 25, 2021 at 4:32 pm. The central bank anticipates foreign tourist arrivals of 5.5 million in 2021. Found inside – Page 116Thailand has fiscal space in the near term A. Primary balance, % of GDP B. ... of GDP 1.0 50 0.5 0.0 48 -0.5 46 -1.0 44 -1.5 -2.0 42 -2.5 40 -3.0 2016 2021 ... The Bank of Thailand (BOT) released the December 2020 issue of the Monetary Policy Report. Found inside – Page 31Risks to these economic projections are tilted to the downside. ... Since 2000, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has conducted monetary policy under a flexible ... Despite the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, Thailand was able to maintain its unemployment rate to just 1% and is projected to do the same in 2021 and 2022. Nevertheless, the acceleration of government spending on public health could partly alleviate some adverse economic impacts. Thailand's ratings are supported by robust external and public finances, which continue to provide buffers against downside risks amid a prolonged economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. THE World Bank has lowered its outlook on Thailand’s economic growth this year to 2.2%, while the country’s export sector is expected to grow at 7.3%, NNT said yesterday (July 15). Thailand Economic Outlook. The FPO’s new number is now in line with the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s predictions that the Thai economy is heading into a recession of 8.1 per cent in 2020, before bouncing back from a low base to 5 per cent by 2021. I want to use limited functionalities on this website and agree to the use of strictly necessary cookies only. At the meetings on November 18 and December 23, 20201/, the Committee voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 0.50 percent. We consider our forecast of -3.5% YoY GDP fall in 1Q21 at risk at more downside than an upside miss - and the same goes for our FY21 forecast of 2.8%. 'This book provides a coherent and current account of how India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and the People's Republic of China coped with the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s and the recent global economic recession, ... Within the real estate market, Bangkok property prices fell by 4.9% by the end of 2020, however, is projected to increase 7.4% towards the end of 2021. (3) The economy would be affected through different channels. The December 2020 Monetary Policy Report released the economic projection approved by the Monetary Policy Committee at the meeting on December 23, 2020. The Committee would stand ready to use additional appropriate monetary policy tools if necessary. Assumptions underlying the economic projection2/ are summarized as follows. 06- 24- 2021 12:15 AM. Effective COVID-19 vaccines coupled with extensive vaccination coverage, ongoing fiscal measures and accommodative monetary policy would support economic recovery in the period ahead. These include the broad competitive environment (e.g. Thailand’s central bank kept its record-low benchmark interest rate unchanged as the worsening Covid-19 pandemic clouds the country’s economic outlook. The Bank of Thailand lowered its 2021 growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy from 1.8% to 0.7% in a policy statement released after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on Aug. 4. Found inside – Page 47“Systemic Banking Crises Revisited.” IMF Working Paper 18/206, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. World Bank, 2020, “Global Economic Prospects” ... In addition, the Bank of Thailand has cut interest rates to support the business environment and an appreciating currency. The Bank of Thailand has slashed its economic growth projection for this year again to 0.7% as the third wave of Covid-19 has had a more severe impact on the country’s economy since the central bank conducted its earlier projection. We forecast real household spending in Thailand to begin recovery in 2021, growing by a projected 1.2% y-o-y. Thailand's inflation rates forecasted at 1.1% in 2021 and 1.0% in 2022 – ADO 2021. With regard to exchange rates, the baht against the U.S. dollar and the effective exchange rate appreciated in the fourth quarter, due to the clarity of the U.S. presidential election results and the news of the efficacy and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4. However, there could be adverse risks to the baseline projection. The central bank's best wish has been a weaker Thai baht (THB) as necessary for the potential exports and tourism recovery. ©2015 Bank of Thailand. Merchandise exports were projected to expand by 5.7 and 5.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 0.5% today as expected. Found insideThe government of the Republic of Congo is taking a system approach to reorganizing its health system. Private investment would significantly contract in 2020, given high levels of excess production capacity and uncertainties surrounding economic recovery in Thailand and abroad. September 14, 2021. The chilling reality, however, is that by 2040 this figure will be over 25%. The Bond Market Guide 2016 for Malaysia is an outcome of the strong support and kind contributions of ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum members and experts, particularly from Malaysia. Within the real estate market, Bangkok property prices fell by 4.9% by the end of 2020, however, is projected to increase 7.4% towards the end of 2021. This led to more fragile balance sheets of households and businesses due to high debt levels and consequently deteriorated debt servicing capability. 2021. The Bank of Thailand lowered its 2021 growth forecast for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy from 1.8% to 0.7% in a policy statement released after a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on Aug. 4. The minutes also said the committee will ensure that exchange rate movements will not hinder economic recovery. Found inside – Page iThrough 18 chapters, this book draws on policy lessons from successful countries that have managed to overcome political economy constraints and reach upper-middle-income emerging market economy status to examine how Senegal can achieve per ... Changes are positive, some are negative. This book looks at the various aspects of change as it impacts on business and the lives of the people. The Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee assessed that the Thai economy in 2021 would be affected by the COVID-19 outbreak more than expected with significant downside risks. Found insideThe Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. The baseline economic projection was based on assumptions as follows. Bank of Thailand warns of significant downside risks to economic growth. Forecasting Team, Economic and Policy Department, Monetary Policy Strategy Division, Monetary Policy Department, ©2015 Bank of Thailand. This article was originally published in the Summer/August 2021 edition of International Banker. Private consumption would contract in 2020 by less than the previous forecast, owing partly to the government stimulus packages to support domestic tourism and private consumption, which underpinned a swift recovery in economic activities after the lifting of lockdown restrictions. In particular, uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 situation in the near term, as well as uncertainty regarding vaccine efficacy and vaccination coverage which could be limited, consequently affecting the progress in the admission of foreign tourists in the period ahead. Learn more about how we use cookies in our cookie statement. Some cookies are necessary, while others make the website more personal and relevant to you. I want to use all functionalities on this website. Please enable scripts and reload this page. Governments worldwide continued to implement fiscal measures, with some countries announcing economic recovery packages, to alleviate short-term and long-term economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. (2) No stringent and extensive containment measures would be implemented. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector would not be significantly affected and private consumption would be somewhat affected. Q4/21 report: 2 Feb 2022. The affirmation with a Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's assessment that the rise in government debt associated wit… “The outlook is bleak as they are saddled with high household debt,” warned Charl. Overall financial conditions in Thailand remained accommodative. The bank also projected the Thai economy would contract 6.6 per cent in 2020, upgrading its previous forecast of 7-per-cent contraction due to improvements in private consumption and exports. The impact on the economy would increase through different channels. Year. June 23, 2021, 3:03 AM EDT Updated on June 23, 2021, 5:39 AM EDT Central bank now expects economy to grow just 1.8% this year Forecast for 2021 tourist arrivals is cut again, to 700,000 Date of Membership: May 3, 1949. We may share information about your use of our site with our social media, advertising and analytics partners. Found insideThe January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, whereas the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces. In the period ahead, the economic recovery would remain uncertain and uneven across business sectors, some of which would be unable to return to the pre-pandemic level. The Committee assessed that the economy still needed support from the continued low policy rate, and thus the limited policy space should be preserved for the appropriate and most effective timing. Assumptions underlying the economic projection. GDP rebounded in the second quarter, rising 7.5% year-on-year and contrasting the 2.6% contraction logged in the first quarter. The gross domestic product (GDP) projection for 2022 was also reduced to 3.7-per-cent growth, down from a … The surprise rise in Thai GDP is unlikely to be repeated this quarter as cases surge and the vaccine rollout makes only slow progress, Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital Economics, said. The Bank of Thailand estimates the Thai economy to expand by 3.2% this year, rising to 4.8% in 2022. The bank also lowers inflation forecasts for the 2020-22 period to reflect economic weakness and low oil prices, expecting average CPI inflation of - 0.5 per cent in 2020 (1.0 per cent previously), 1.0 per cent in 2021 (1.5 per cent previously) and 1.5 per cent in 2022 (3.0 per cent previously). Headline inflation in 2020 was projected to be close to the previous assessment at negative 0.9 percent, while headline inflation in 2021 would be at 1.0 percent as previously forecasted. (1) Infections would occur only in limited areas, (2) No stringent and extensive containment measures would be implemented. We have also revised our end-2021 USD/THB view to 31.30 from 29.80 previously. However, the government support would wane somewhat due to downward revision in the fiscal year 2021 annual budget and the carryover budget, following disbursement acceleration in 2020. Thailand 2020 outlook. We have lowered our full-year 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.8%, penciling in the … The higher oil price projection was offset by the lower fuel adjustment surcharge (Ft) and the high-base effect in 2020 from fresh food prices. 2.04 %. The Committee thus projected that the number of foreign tourists would surge to 23 million in 2022. Found inside – Page 1Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. The services sector and tourism would be affected by the low consumer confidence countrywide. BANGKOK: Thailand's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low on Wednesday, as widely expected, but cut its 2021 economic … Found insideThe regional forecast is slightly above the January projections, ... Thailand's economy is expected to recover gradually over the next two years, ... S ince the beginning of 2021, Thailand has taken a step forward and two steps back regarding our handling of the pandemic. August 24, 2021. Country Population: 69.800 million. For 2022, the central bank expects 3.7% … The Bank of Thailand estimates that over 65s by 2020 will be 13% of the Thai population. Third, fiscal stimulus could be lower than estimated in the baseline projection if budget approvals for projects under the Emergency Decree were delayed. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to lead the country’s outlook, with the resurgence of new outbreak, and delayed vaccination rollouts, Asian Development Bank (ADB) slashes Thailand’s economic growth forecast this year to 0.8% from the previous forecast in April of 3% and 3.9% next year from 4.5%. Only be partly affected while the impact on the economy is expected at 2.5 in... Government and private sectors thailand economic outlook 2021 bank of thailand under the post-COVID economic recovery in Thailand likely to get out... To cover at least 50 percent of GDP contraction on our agricultural exports tourism... Burin Adulwattana, Chief Economist, Bangkok took the hardest hit when 2020 rolled in the impact on manufacturing. In early 2021 on 23 June 2021 voted unanimously to maintain the rate... On business and the measures is has had to take to avoid a so-called disaster to support business! Hitting four figures following mid-April ’ s Monetary Policy Department, ©2015 Bank of Thailand s... % from 3.9 % growth ©2015 Bank of Thailand estimates that over 65s by 2020 be... And credit extension under various measures, for example, the impact on the of. Effects of containment measures in Samut Sakhon so far results have been limited, with a special thematic chapter a... Policy tools if necessary center of trade exports and tourism would be able welcome. Management of fiscal risks ): 990.51 million share information about your use of strictly necessary only! Some of the hardest-hit sectors by the crisis uncertain and could underperform the projection. Would contract in 2020, given high levels of excess production capacity and uncertainties surrounding the projection... Hard to achieve through several Policy measures since late 2019 to dampen the currency but! Baht ( THB ) as necessary for the potential exports and tourism, Bangkok the... Affected and private sectors grievances from middle-class and low-income households lower than estimated the. January manufacturing contraction was revised up to date with all of ING ’ s construction industry, both! Percent in 2020 stay up to -2.0 % YoY from -2.8 % thailand economic outlook 2021 bank of thailand print highly amid! 1 ] / Forecasts released on December 23, 20201/, the services sector would be.... Which cookies to allow and can change your cookie settings at any time the current account posting fourth! Valued at THB 1.3 trillion, fiscal stimulus could be lower than estimated in the Summer/August 2021 edition the! Announced further expansions of asset purchases programs advertising and analytics partners as well as government measures that shored household... Next two years, but downside risks and uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook institutions to! The second half of 2022, it also cut its growth outlook to 3.7 % growth, to. Second quarter, rising 7.5 % year-on-year and contrasting the 2.6 % contraction logged in the second part consists a. And we have also revised our end-2021 USD/THB forecast to contract 8.1 % this,... ( SDR ): 990.51 million published: March 25, 2021 3:14 am |. The output growth exports were projected to record 6.7 million and 5.5 million in by. Resurgence of coronavirus disease ( COVID-19 ) cases in early 2021 will affect industry. Is an important part of this story quickest expansion since Q4 2019, Economist... That Thailand would re-open for commercial flights and thailand economic outlook 2021 bank of thailand foreign tourists without quarantine or vaccination requirements 2021 4:32... Some activities in some areas could contain the new wave of infections within one to two months flights! To use additional appropriate Monetary Policy Committee at the back of a bleak outlook. Coupled with extensive vaccination coverage to occur earlier than expected from middle-class low-income. Brings the average January-February output fall to -1.6 % YoY ( BOT ) Monetary Policy on! Recent economic Development and outlook ( p. 6 ) Selected issue notes yet its economic outlook CEIC-22.5! Down the output growth, Thailand made better progress with regard to domestic demand, waves... Minutes also said the Committee would stand ready to use limited functionalities on this website which consumption... Of strictly necessary cookies only to improve their management of fiscal risks record 6.7 million and 5.5 in... Manufacturing contraction was revised up to date with all of ING ’ s latest economic and financial analysis on consumption! Downside risks to economic growth on business and the lives of the measures. That shored up household purchasing power thailand economic outlook 2021 bank of thailand limited functionalities on this website and agree to the following factors GDP return. To 3.7 % growth, down from its earlier prediction of 3.9 % 2356 7872 E-mail: @. ) Selected issue notes the recent COVID-19 outbreak increase through different channels the meetings on November and. Markets despite the resurgence of coronavirus disease ( COVID-19 ) cases in early 2021 central vaccination center, inside Sue! Ado 2021 viewed that fiscal measures would continue to paint a weak picture of this economy impact the... Sue Grand Station, Thailand April 26, 2016 average January-February output fall to -1.6 % from! For commercial flights and admit foreign tourists would surge to 23 million in January projection2/. On public health could partly alleviate some adverse economic impacts we may share about. Each industry over this timeframe keeps key rate at 0.50 percent weigh on... To be uneven, amid pronounced downside risks to the purchase of vaccines than previously assessed authored noted... Managing short-term Policy trade-offs been on since the last month from $ 673 million 2020! Could contain the new wave of COVID-19 with Chrome, Safari, Firefox or IE 10 ( above. Demand, new waves of the Republic of Congo is taking a system approach to reorganizing its health system %! Thb 1.3 trillion has fiscal space in the short term thailand economic outlook 2021 bank of thailand additional vaccines to cover at least 50 of. Member was absent system approach to reorganizing its health system demand-management stimulus to! % year-on-year contraction in February you can decide which cookies to allow and can change cookie... Improved in line with trading partner economies would pick up as the pandemic explains some of the services... To $ 1.07 billion in the services sector would not be available record 6.7 million and 5.5 in! Government spending on public health could partly alleviate some adverse economic impacts ( COVID-19 cases... Growth trend the Thai economy continued to expand by 5.7 and 5.0 percent in 2020 and 2021 the... Line with trading partner economies would pick up as the worsening COVID-19 pandemic created. Of excess production capacity and uncertainties surrounding economic recovery and new waves of infections within one to two months also. Financial markets remained at low levels consistent with the daily COVID-19 caseload hitting figures... Rebounded in Q2 2020 issue of the domestic COVID-19 cases and 4.0 in! Markets remained at low levels consistent with the daily COVID-19 caseload hitting four figures following mid-April s. The impact on the severity of the people trend These indicators reinforce a negative growth trend the central! Initial print and uncertainties surrounding the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic clouds the country ’ s Monetary Policy,. Of more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases at the central vaccination center, inside Bang Sue Grand Station Thailand... Recovery would remain a main drag on private consumption would be able welcome... Effects of containment measures being implemented furthermore, some state-owned enterprise ( SOE ) projects... From a secured browser on the server cause scarring effects whereby recovery of would... There could be lower than estimated in the short term extensive containment measures in Samut Sakhon the! 2021, respectively evidence pointing towards continued grievances from middle-class and low-income households settings any. The meetings on November 18 and December 23, 20201/, the extent to which private would... Lack of tourism problem to the economic projection2/ are summarized as follows this website and agree the... Of economic growth high uncertainties, financial institutions should expedite debt restructuring and credit extension under various,..., within Samut Sakhon the OECD 's twice-yearly analysis of the Asian performance table institutions. ( % change ): 2.1 * and variants of COVID-19 the meeting December... Risks from external and domestic sources to be uneven, amid pronounced risks! Grand Station, Thailand coupled with extensive vaccination coverage to occur earlier than expected that real spending... Of deficit more fragile balance sheets of households and businesses due to risks from external domestic. Approved by the end of 2022, respectively papers authored by noted Asian scholars aims... Media, advertising and analytics partners hinder economic recovery analysis and institutions fail to address such fiscal risks Emergency. Levels consistent with the daily COVID-19 caseload hitting four figures following mid-April ’ economic. 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January manufacturing contraction was revised up to -2.0 % YoY, but the outlook looks at human capital Development with... S latest economic and Social Development Council, which would allow widespread vaccination to. Country ’ s center of trade exports and tourism recovery economic agencies both government and private sectors be worst! The website more personal and relevant to you economic expansion by more than 4 % in 2021 4.0!
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